Kule sizini yendabuko engasebenzi yokuthutha, izindawo zokuthumela eziqinile, amanani akhuphukayo wezimpahla, kanye nesizini eqinile yokungangeni kube amagama abalulekile emakethe.Idatha ekhishwe yi-Shanghai Shipping Exchange ikhombisa ukuthi kusukela ekupheleni kukaMashi 2024 kuze kube manje, izinga lezimpahla ezisuka e-Shanghai Port kuya emakethe eyisisekelo echwebeni eNingizimu Melika linyuke ngo-95.88%, kanye nezinga lezimpahla ezisuka e-Shanghai Port ziye echwebeni eliyisisekelo. imakethe eYurophu inyuke ngo-43.88%.
Abangaphakathi embonini bahlaziya ukuthi izici ezifana nokuthuthuka kwesidingo semakethe eYurophu nase-United States kanye nezingxabano ezidonsa isikhathi eside oLwandle Olubomvu yizona zizathu eziyinhloko zokwenyuka kwamanani ezimpahla ezithunyelwayo.Ngokufika kwesizini yomkhumbi esezingeni eliphakeme, izintengo zokuthunyelwa kweziqukathi zingase ziqhubeke zikhuphuka ngokuzayo.
Izindleko zokuthumela zase-Europe zikhuphuke ngaphezu kwama-20% ngesonto
Kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-Ephreli 2024, i-Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index ekhishwe yi-Shanghai Shipping Exchange iqhubekile nokukhuphuka.Idatha ekhishwe ngoMeyi 10 ikhombise ukuthi inkomba yesilinganiso sezimpahla ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eShanghai ibingamaphuzu angama-2305.79, okuwukunyuka ngo-18.8% kusukela ngesonto eledlule, okuwukunyuka ngo-33.21% kusuka kumaphuzu ayi-1730.98 ngoMashi 29, nokunyuka ngama-33.21% kusuka kumaphuzu ayi-1730.98 Mashi 29, eyayiphezulu kunaleyo ngoNovemba 2023 ngaphambi kokugqashuka kwenhlekelele yoLwandle Olubomvu.Inyuke ngo-132.16%.
Phakathi kwazo, imizila eya eNingizimu Melika naseYurophu yathola ukwanda okuphezulu kakhulu.Izinga lempahla (imali eyengeziwe olwandle kanye nempahla yasolwandle) ethunyelwa isuka e-Shanghai Port iya emakethe eyisisekelo yechweba laseNingizimu Melika ingu-US$5,461/TEU (isitsha esinobude obungamamitha angu-20, esibuye saziwe nge-TEU), inyuke ngo-18.1% kusukela esikhathini esedlule. kanye nokwenyuka ngama-95.88% ukusuka ekupheleni kukaNdasa.Izinga lempahla (imali eyengeziwe yokuthunyelwa nokuthunyelwa kwempahla) ethunyelwa isuka e-Shanghai Port iya emakethe yetheku eyisisekelo yase-Europe ingu-US$2,869/TEU, okuwukukhuphuka okubukhali ngo-24.7% kusukela ngesonto eledlule, okuwukunyuka ngo-43.88% kusukela ekupheleni kuka-March, kanye nokwenyuka ngo-305.8% kusukela ngoNovemba 2023.
Umuntu ophethe ibhizinisi lokuthumela umhlinzeki wesevisi ye-digital logistics uYunqunar Logistics Technology Group (kamuva ebizwa ngokuthi “Yunqunar”) uthe engxoxweni nezintatheli ukuthi kusukela ngasekupheleni kuka-Ephreli kulo nyaka, kungazwakala sengathi ukuthunyelwa ku-Latin. IMelika, iYurophu, iNyakatho Melika, kanye nezinga lokuThutha emizileni yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi, eNdiya nasePakistan linyukile, futhi ukwanda kuye kwabonakala nakakhulu ngoMeyi.
Imininingwane ekhishwe u-Drewry, isikhungo sokucwaninga ngemikhumbi kanye ne-consulting, ngoMeyi 10 iphinde yakhombisa ukuthi i-Drewry World Container Index (WCI) ikhuphuke yafinyelela ku- $ 3,159/FEU (isitsha esinobude obungamamitha angama-40) kuleli sonto (kusukela ngoMeyi 9), okuyinto ihambisana no-2022 Inyuke ngo-81% uma iqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule futhi yayiphezulu ngo-122% kunezinga elimaphakathi lika-US$1,420/FEU ngaphambi kwalolu bhubhane ngo-2019.
Muva nje, izinkampani eziningi zemikhumbi, okuhlanganisa iMedithera Shipping Company (MSC), iMaersk, CMA CGM, kanye neHapag-Lloyd, zimemezele ukwenyuka kwamanani.Thatha i-CMA CGM njengesibonelo.Ekupheleni kuka-April, i-CMA CGM yamemezela ukuthi kusukela ngomhlaka-15 Meyi, izolungisa amazinga amasha e-FAK (Freight All Kinds) omzila we-Asia-Northern Europe uye kuma-US$2,700/TEU kanye nama-US$5,000/FEU.Ngaphambilini, banyuke ngo-US$500/TEU kanye ne-US$1,000/FEU;ngoMeyi 10, i-CMA CGM yamemezela ukuthi kusukela ngomhlaka-1 Juni, izokwenyusa izinga le-FAK lempahla ethunyelwa isuka e-Asia iye emachwebeni aseNordic.Izinga elisha liphezulu njenge-US$6,000/FEU.Nakulokhu Kunyuswe ngo-$1,000/FEU.
U-Ke Wensheng, oyi-CEO yesikhondlakhondla senkampani yemikhumbi i-Maersk, uthe engqungqutheleni yakamuva ethi umthamo wezimpahla emizileni yase-Maersk yase-Europe unyuke ngo-9%, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yesidingo esinamandla sabathekelisi baseYurophu sokuphinda bagcwalise uhlu lwezimpahla.Kodwa-ke, inkinga yokucinana kwezindawo nayo iye yavela, futhi abathumbi abaningi kufanele bakhokhe amanani aphezulu wempahla ukuze bagweme ukubambezeleka kwempahla.
Ngenkathi izintengo zokuthumela zikhuphuka, izintengo zesitimela sezimpahla zaseChina-Europe nazo ziyenyuka.Umthumeli wezimpahla ophethe izitimela ezithwala impahla eChina-Europe utshele izintatheli ukuthi isidingo samanje sezimpahla ezithwala impahla eChina-Europe sikhule kakhulu, kanti izinga lempahla kweminye imizila linyuke ngo-US$200-300, futhi kungenzeka liqhubeke nokukhuphuka ikusasa.“Intengo yokuthutha olwandle inyukile, futhi indawo yokugcina impahla kanye nesikhathi akukwazi ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zamakhasimende, okubangele ukuthi ezinye izimpahla zidluliselwe ezitimeleni.Kodwa-ke, umthamo wezokuthutha ngojantshi ulinganiselwe, futhi isidingo sendawo yokuthutha sikhuphuke kakhulu esikhathini esifushane, okuzophazamisa izilinganiso zempahla.”
Izimbuyiselo zenkinga yokushoda kweziqukathi
“Noma ngabe emikhumbi noma eyesitimela ayashoda amakhonteyna.Kwezinye izindawo, akunakwenzeka uku-oda amabhokisi.Izindleko zokuqasha amabhokisi emakethe zinkulu kunokwenyuka kwenani lempahla.”Umuntu osembonini yamakhonteyina eGuangdong utshele izintatheli.
Isibonelo, wathi izindleko zokusebenzisa i-40HQ (i-container engamamitha angu-40-ukuphakama) emzileni we-China-Europe yayingu-US$500-600 ngonyaka odlule, ekhuphuke yafinyelela ku-$1,000-1,200 ngoJanuwari kulo nyaka.Manje isikhuphukele ngaphezu kwe-US$1,500, futhi idlula i-US$2,000 kwezinye izindawo.
Umthumeli wezimpahla echwebeni laseShanghai uphinde watshela izintatheli ukuthi amanye amagceke aphesheya kwezilwandle asegcwele ama-container, kushoda kakhulu ama-container eChina.Intengo yamabhokisi angenalutho e-Shanghai nase-Duisburg, eJalimane, inyukile isuka ku-$1,450 ngoMashi yaya ku-$1,900 yamanje.
Umuntu ophethe ibhizinisi lemikhumbi elishiwo ngenhla laseYunqunar uthe isizathu esibalulekile sokwanda kwezindleko zokuqasha amabhokisi ukuthi ngenxa yokungqubuzana oLwandle Olubomvu, isibalo esikhulu sabanikazi bemikhumbi saphambukela eCape of Good Hope, okuthe ngenxa yengxabano yasolwandle olubomvu. kubangele ukushintshwa kwesiqukathi okungenani kube ngamaviki angu-2-3 ubude kunesikhathi esivamile, okuholela ezitsheni ezingenalutho.Uketshezi luhamba kancane.
Izitayela zemakethe yemikhumbi yomhlaba wonke (ekuqaleni kuya maphakathi noMeyi) ezikhishwe yi-Dexun Logistics ngoMeyi 9 ziveze ukuthi ngemuva kweholidi loSuku lukaMeyi, isimo sisonke sokuhlinzekwa kwamabhokisi asikathuthuki kakhulu.Kunamazinga ahlukene okushoda kwamabhokisi, ikakhulukazi amabhokisi amakhulu namade, futhi ezinye izinkampani zemikhumbi ziyaqhubeka nokuqinisa ukulawula ukusetshenziswa kwamabhokisi emizileni yaseLatin America.Iziqukathi ezintsha ezenziwe e-China zibhukhwe ngaphambi kokuphela kukaJuni.
Ngo-2021, ehlaselwe ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19, imakethe yezohwebo yangaphandle “yehla yaqala yanyuka”, kanti uchungechunge lwezokuthutha lwamazwe ngamazwe lwabhekana nochungechunge lwezimo ezimbi kakhulu ebezingalindelekile.Ukubuya kokubuya kweziqukathi ezisabalele emhlabeni wonke akusheleli, futhi ukusatshalaliswa kweziqukathi emhlabeni wonke akulingani.Inani elikhulu lamabhokisi angenalutho asalele emuva e-United States, e-Europe, e-Australia nakwezinye izindawo, futhi izwe lami liyashoda ngeziqukathi zokuthumela ngaphandle.Ngakho-ke, izinkampani zezitsha zigcwele ama-oda futhi zinamandla okukhiqiza aphelele.Kwaze kwaba sekupheleni kuka-2021 lapho ukushoda kwamabhokisi kwehla kancane kancane.
Ngokuthuthuka kokuhlinzekwa kwamabhokisi kanye nokutholwa kokusebenza kahle emakethe yemikhumbi yomhlaba wonke, kube nokusalela emuva ngokweqile kwamakhonteyna angenalutho emakethe yasekhaya kusukela ngo-2022 kuya ku-2023, kwaze kwaba nokushoda kwamabhokisi futhi kulo nyaka.
Izintengo zempahla zingase ziqhubeke nokukhuphuka
Ngokuphathelene nezizathu zokukhuphuka okubukhali kwakamuva kwamanani ezimpahla, umuntu ophethe ibhizinisi lokuthumela elishiwo ngenhla le-YQN uhlaziye izintatheli ukuthi okokuqala, i-United States isiqede ngokuyisisekelo isiteji sokukhipha impahla futhi yangena esigabeni sokubuyisela kabusha.Izinga lomthamo wezokuthutha lomzila owela i-Pacific liye lasimama kancane kancane, okukhuphule izinga lokukhuphuka kwempahla.Okwesibili, ukuze kugwenywe ukulungiswa okungaba khona kwentela okwenziwa yi-United States, izinkampani eziya emakethe yase-US zisebenzise imakethe yaseLatin America, okuhlanganisa imboni yokukhiqiza izimoto, imboni yengqalasizinda, njll., futhi zadlulisela imigqa yazo yokukhiqiza eLatin America. , okuholela ekukhuleni okugxilile kwesidingo semizila yaseLatin America.Izinkampani eziningi zemikhumbi Imizila eya eMexico yengeziwe ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nesidingo esandayo.Okwesithathu, isimo oLwandle Olubomvu siye sabangela ukushoda kwezinsiza emizileni yaseYurophu.Kusukela ezikhaleni zokuthutha kuya ezitsheni ezingenalutho, amanani ezimpahla aseYurophu nawo ayakhuphuka.Okwesine, inkathi ephezulu yohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe olungokwesiko lungaphambi kweminyaka edlule.Ngokuvamile uJuni unyaka ngamunye ungena enkathini yokuthengisa yasehlobo phesheya kwezilwandle, futhi amanani ezimpahla azokhuphuka ngokufanele.Amanani ezimpahla kulo nyaka anyuke ngenyanga eyodwa ngaphambi kwaseminyakeni edlule, okusho ukuthi inkathi yokuthengisa ephezulu yalo nyaka ifike ngaphambi kwesikhathi.
I-Zheshang Securities ikhiphe umbiko wocwaningo ngoMeyi 11 onesihloko esithi "Ungakubuka kanjani ukwanda kwakamuva okuphambene nezintengo zokuthunyelwa kwamabhokisi?"Iveze ukuthi ukungqubuzana okuthathe isikhathi eside oLwandle Olubomvu kuholele ekutheni kube nokungezwani kwempahla.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuchezuka kwemikhumbi kuye kwaholela ekwandeni kwamabanga okuthutha., Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukwehla kokusebenza kahle kokusebenza komkhumbi kuholele ekushintsheni kweziqukathi eziqinile emachwebeni, okuqhubekisela phambili ukungezwani kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla.Ngaphezu kwalokho, umkhawulo wohlangothi lwesidingo uyathuthuka, idatha yomnotho omkhulu eYurophu nase-United States ithuthuka kancane, futhi kuhambisana nokulindela ukukhuphuka kwamanani ezimpahla ngesizini ephezulu, abanikazi bezimpahla baqoqa kusenesikhathi.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ulayini wase-US ungene esikhathini esibucayi sokusayina izivumelwano zesikhathi eside, futhi izinkampani zemikhumbi zinogqozi lokunyusa amanani.
Ngaso leso sikhathi, umbiko wocwaningo ukholelwa ukuthi iphethini ephezulu yokugxilisa ingqondo kanye nokusebenzisana kwezimboni embonini yokuthutha amabhokisi kuye kwakha amandla okuthuthukisa amanani.I-Zheshang Securities ithe izinkampani zamakhonteyina angaphandle zinezinga eliphezulu lokugxila.Kusukela ngoMeyi 10, 2024, izinkampani eziyishumi eziphezulu zamalayini eziqukathi zabalelwa ku-84.2% womthamo wezokuthutha.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ubudlelwano bemboni kanye nokubambisana kuye kwasungulwa phakathi kwezinkampani.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, Esimeni sokuwohloka kwesimo sokuphakelwa kanye nesidingo, kuyasiza ukunciphisa ukuncintisana kwamanani anonya ngokumisa ukuhamba ngomkhumbi nokulawula umthamo wezokuthutha.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, esimweni sobudlelwano obuthuthukisiwe bokuhlinzeka nokufunwa, kulindeleke ukuthi kuzuzwe amazinga aphezulu omthwalo wempahla ngokunyuka kwamanani okuhlanganyelwe.
Kusukela ngoNovemba 2023, amabutho ahlomile aseYemen aseHouthi ahlasele kaningi imikhumbi oLwandle Olubomvu kanye namanzi aseduze.Iziqhwaga eziningi zemikhumbi emhlabeni wonke azikwazanga ukwenza ngaphandle kokumisa ukuhamba kwemikhumbi yazo yamabhokisi oLwandle Olubomvu namanzi aseduze kwalo futhi zishintshe imizila yazo ezungeze iCape of Good Hope e-Afrika.Kulo nyaka, isimo oLwandle Olubomvu sisakhula, futhi imithambo yemikhumbi ivinjiwe, ikakhulukazi i-Asia-Europe supply chain, ethinteke kakhulu.
Mayelana nokuthambekela kwemakethe yokuthunyelwa kwamakhonteyina esikhathini esizayo, i-Dexun Logistics ithe ngenxa yesimo samanje, amanani ezimpahla azohlala eqinile esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, futhi izinkampani zemikhumbi sezihlela umzuliswano omusha wokwenyuka kwezinga lempahla.
“Izinga lokuthuthwa kwamabhokisi lizoqhubeka nokunyuka ngokuzayo.Okokuqala, inkathi evamile yokuthengisa phesheya kwezilwandle isaqhubeka, futhi ama-Olympics azoqhutshelwa eYurophu ngoJulayi nonyaka, angase akhuphule amanani ezimpahla;okwesibili, ukuchithwa kwempahla eYurophu nase-United States sekuphelile ngokuyisisekelo, futhi ukuthengiswa kwasekhaya e-United States Kuphinde kukhulise okulindelweyo ekuthuthukisweni kwemboni yezokuthengisa yezwe.Ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwesidingo namandla okuthutha aqinile, amanani wezimpahla kulindeleke ukuthi aqhubeke nokukhuphuka esikhathini esifushane,” kusho umthombo oshiwo ngenhla we-Yunqunar.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: May-17-2024
