Amanani Okuthumela Ngemigqa Eminingi Ayaqhubeka Nokwenyuka!

Kulesi sikhathi sendabuko sokuphumula kwemikhumbi, izindawo zokuthumela ezixinene, amazinga okuthutha akhuphukayo, kanye nesikhathi esiqinile sokuphumula sekuyizinto ezibalulekile emakethe. Idatha ekhishwe yi-Shanghai Shipping Exchange ikhombisa ukuthi kusukela ekupheleni kukaMashi 2024 kuze kube manje, izinga lokuthutha elivela eShanghai Port liya emakethe yechweba eyisisekelo eNingizimu Melika likhuphuke ngo-95.88%, kanti izinga lokuthutha elivela eShanghai Port liya emakethe yechweba eyisisekelo eYurophu likhuphuke ngo-43.88%.

Abangaphakathi embonini bahlaziya ukuthi izici ezifana nokuthuthuka kwesidingo semakethe eYurophu nase-United States kanye nengxabano ende eLwandle Olubomvu yizona zizathu eziyinhloko zokwanda kwamanje kwamanani empahla. Njengoba kufika isikhathi sokuthunyelwa kwempahla esivamile, amanani okuthunyelwa kwamakhonteyina angase aqhubeke nokukhuphuka esikhathini esizayo.

Izindleko zokuthumela zaseYurophu zenyuke ngaphezu kuka-20% ngesonto

Kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-Ephreli 2024, i-Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index ekhishwe yi-Shanghai Shipping Exchange iqhubekile nokwenyuka. Idatha ekhishwe ngoMeyi 10 ikhombisile ukuthi inkomba yezinga lokuthunyelwa kwezimpahla ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eShanghai yayingamaphuzu angu-2305.79, ukwenyuka ngo-18.8% kusukela ngesonto eledlule, ukwenyuka ngo-33.21% kusukela kumaphuzu angu-1730.98 ngoMashi 29, kanye nokwenyuka ngo-33.21% kusukela kumaphuzu angu-1730.98 ngoMashi 29, okwakuphakeme kunalokho ngoNovemba 2023 ngaphambi kokugqashuka kwenkinga yoLwandle Olubomvu. Ukwenyuka ngo-132.16%.

Phakathi kwazo, imizila eya eNingizimu Melika naseYurophu ithole ukwenyuka okuphezulu kakhulu. Izinga lempahla (izindleko zokuthutha zasolwandle kanye nezindleko zokuthutha zasolwandle) ezithunyelwe zisuka eShanghai Port ziya emakethe yechweba eyisisekelo yaseNingizimu Melika yi-US$5,461/TEU (isitsha esinobude obungamamitha angu-20, esaziwa nangokuthi i-TEU), ukwenyuka ngo-18.1% kusukela esikhathini esedlule kanye nokwenyuka ngo-95.88% kusukela ekupheleni kukaMashi. Izinga lempahla (izindleko zokuthutha kanye nezindleko zokuthutha) ezithunyelwe zisuka eShanghai Port ziya emakethe yechweba eyisisekelo yaseYurophu yi-US$2,869/TEU, ukwenyuka okukhulu ngo-24.7% kusukela ngesonto eledlule, ukwenyuka ngo-43.88% kusukela ekupheleni kukaMashi, kanye nokwenyuka ngo-305.8% kusukela ngoNovemba 2023.

Umuntu ophethe ibhizinisi lokuthutha lomhlinzeki wezinsizakalo zedijithali zomhlaba wonke i-Yunqunar Logistics Technology Group (ebizwa ngokuthi “i-Yunqunar”) uthe engxoxweni nezintatheli ukuthi kusukela ekupheleni kuka-Ephreli kulo nyaka, kungazwakala sengathi ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla eLatin America, eYurophu, eNyakatho Melika, kanye namanani emizileni eMpumalanga Ephakathi, eNdiya nasePakistan akhuphukile, futhi ukwanda kube kukhulu kakhulu ngoMeyi.

Idatha ekhishwe yi-Drewry, i-ejensi yocwaningo lokuthumela kanye nokubonisana, ngoMeyi 10 nayo ikhombisile ukuthi i-Drewry World Container Index (WCI) ikhuphuke yaya ku-$3,159/FEU (isitsha esinobude obungamamitha angu-40) kuleli sonto (kusukela ngoMeyi 9), okuhambisana no-2022. Ikhuphuke ngo-81% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule futhi yayiphakeme ngo-122% kunezinga elijwayelekile lama-US$1,420/FEU ngaphambi kobhubhane ngo-2019.

Muva nje, izinkampani eziningi zokuthumela impahla, okuhlanganisa i-Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), i-Maersk, i-CMA CGM, kanye ne-Hapag-Lloyd, zimemezele ukwenyuka kwentengo. Thatha i-CMA CGM njengesibonelo. Ekupheleni kuka-Ephreli, i-CMA CGM yamemezela ukuthi kusukela ngoMeyi 15, izolungisa amazinga amasha e-FAK (Freight All Kinds) omzila we-Asia-Northern Europe abe yi-US$2,700/TEU kanye ne-US$5,000/FEU. Ngaphambilini, ayenyuke ngo-US$500/TEU kanye ne-US$1,000/FEU; ngoMeyi 10, i-CMA CGM yamemezela ukuthi kusukela ngoJuni 1, izonyusa izinga le-FAK lempahla ethunyelwa isuka e-Asia iye emachwebeni aseNordic. Izinga elisha liphezulu njengo-US$6,000/FEU. Futhi likhuphuke ngo-$1,000/FEU.

UKe Wensheng, i-CEO yenkampani enkulu yokuthumela izimpahla emhlabeni wonke iMaersk, uthe ocingweni lwengqungquthela lwakamuva ukuthi inani lempahla emizileni yaseYurophu yaseMaersk likhuphuke ngo-9%, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yesidingo esinamandla esivela kubathumeli baseYurophu sokugcwalisa izinto ezigciniwe. Kodwa-ke, inkinga yendawo encane nayo ivele, futhi abathumeli abaningi kufanele bakhokhe amanani aphezulu empahla ukuze bagweme ukubambezeleka kwempahla.

Nakuba amanani okuthumela impahla enyuka, amanani ezitimela zempahla zaseShayina-Europe nawo ayanda. Umphathi wezimpahla ophethe izitimela zempahla zaseShayina-Europe utshele izintatheli ukuthi isidingo samanje sempahla yezitimela zempahla zaseShayina-Europe sikhuphuke kakhulu, kanti amanani empahla kweminye imizila akhuphuke ngo-$200-300, futhi kungenzeka aqhubeke ekhuphuka esikhathini esizayo. "Intengo yempahla yasolwandle ikhuphukile, futhi indawo yokugcina impahla kanye nesikhathi esifanele akukwazi ukuhlangabezana nesidingo samakhasimende, okwenza ezinye izimpahla zidluliselwe ezitimeleni. Kodwa-ke, umthamo wokuthutha izitimela ulinganiselwe, futhi isidingo sendawo yokuthumela impahla sikhuphuke kakhulu esikhathini esifushane, okuzothinta nakanjani amazinga empahla."

Inkinga yokuntuleka kwamakhonteyina iyabuya

“Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ukuthunyelwa noma ukuthutha ngesitimela, kukhona ukushoda kwama-container. Kwezinye izindawo, akunakwenzeka uku-oda amabhokisi. Izindleko zokuqasha ama-container emakethe zinkulu kunokwenyuka kwamanani empahla.” Umuntu osembonini yama-container eGuangdong utshele izintatheli.

Isibonelo, uthe izindleko zokusebenzisa i-40HQ (isitsha esingamamitha angu-40 ukuphakama) emzileni ophakathi kweShayina neYurophu kwakuyi-US$500-600 ngonyaka odlule, okwakhuphuka kwaya ku-US$1,000-1,200 ngoJanuwari kulo nyaka. Manje isikhuphuke yaya ngaphezu kwe-US$1,500, futhi idlula i-US$2,000 kwezinye izindawo.

Umthumeli wezimpahla eShanghai Port uphinde watshela izintatheli ukuthi amanye amagceke aphesheya kwezilwandle manje agcwele amabhokisi, futhi kukhona ukushoda okukhulu kwamabhokisi eShayina. Intengo yamabhokisi angenalutho eShanghai naseDuisburg, eJalimane, ikhuphuke isuka ku-$1,450 ngoMashi yaya ku-$1,900 yamanje.

Umuntu ophethe ibhizinisi lokuthutha elishiwo ngenhla laseYunqunar uthe isizathu esibalulekile sokukhuphuka kwezimali zokuqasha amakhonteyina ukuthi ngenxa yengxabano eLwandle Olubomvu, inani elikhulu labanikazi bemikhumbi laphambukela eCape of Good Hope, okwabangela ukuthi ukuguquka kwamakhonteyina kube okungenani amasonto ama-2-3 isikhathi eside kunesikhathi esivamile, okwaholela ezitsheni ezingenalutho. Uketshezi luyahamba kancane.

Izitayela zemakethe yokuthumela impahla emhlabeni wonke (ekuqaleni kuya maphakathi noMeyi) ezikhishwe yiDexun Logistics ngoMeyi 9 ziveze ukuthi ngemva kweholide likaMeyi, isimo sokutholakala kwamakhonteyina asikathuthuki kakhulu. Kunezinga elihlukahlukene lokushoda kwamakhonteyina, ikakhulukazi amakhonteyina amakhulu namade, futhi ezinye izinkampani zokuthumela impahla ziyaqhubeka nokuqinisa ukulawula ukusetshenziswa kwamakhonteyina emizileni yaseLatin America. Amakhonteyina amasha enziwe eShayina abhukishwe ngaphambi kokuphela kukaJuni.

Ngo-2021, ethintwe ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19, imakethe yezohwebo lwangaphandle "yaqala yehla yabe isikhuphuka", kanti uchungechunge lwezokuthutha lwamazwe ngamazwe lwabhekana nochungechunge lwezimo ezimbi kakhulu ezingalindelekile. Ukuhamba kweziqukathi ezisakazeke emhlabeni wonke akuhambanga kahle, futhi ukusatshalaliswa kweziqukathi emhlabeni wonke akulingana kakhulu. Inani elikhulu leziqukathi ezingenalutho lisemuva e-United States, eYurophu, e-Australia nakwezinye izindawo, futhi izwe lami lintula iziqukathi zokuthumela kwamanye amazwe. Ngakho-ke, izinkampani zeziqukathi zigcwele ama-oda futhi zinamandla okukhiqiza aphelele. Kwaze kwaba sekupheleni kuka-2021 lapho ukushoda kwamabhokisi kwancipha kancane kancane.

Njengoba kuthuthukiswe ukuhlinzekwa kwamakhonteyina kanye nokuvuselelwa kokusebenza kahle emakethe yokuthumela impahla emhlabeni wonke, kube nokusilela okukhulu kwamakhonteyina angenalutho emakethe yasekhaya kusukela ngo-2022 kuya ku-2023, kwaze kwaba yilapho kuntuleka amakhonteyina futhi kulo nyaka.

Amanani empahla angase aqhubeke nokwenyuka

Ngokuphathelene nezizathu zokwenyuka okukhulu kwamanani empahla muva nje, umuntu ophethe ibhizinisi lokuthumela impahla le-YQN okukhulunywe ngaye ngenhla uhlaziye izintatheli ukuthi okokuqala, i-United States isiqede isigaba sokususa impahla futhi yangena esigabeni sokubuyisela impahla. Izinga lomthamo wokuthutha lomzila we-trans-Pacific liye lakhula kancane kancane, okuye kwakhulisa ukwenyuka kwamanani empahla. Okwesibili, ukuze kugwenywe ukulungiswa okungenzeka kwentela yi-United States, izinkampani eziya emakethe yase-US zisebenzise imakethe yaseLatin America, okuhlanganisa imboni yokukhiqiza izimoto, imboni yengqalasizinda, njll., futhi zidlulisele imigqa yazo yokukhiqiza eLatin America, okuholele ekukhuleni okukhulu kwesidingo semizila yaseLatin America. Izinkampani eziningi zokuthumela izimpahla iRoute to Mexico zenezelwe ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nesidingo esikhulu. Okwesithathu, isimo oLwandle Olubomvu sibangele ukushoda kwezinsizakusebenza emizileni yaseYurophu. Kusukela ezindaweni zokuthumela kuya ezitsheni ezingenalutho, amazinga empahla aseYurophu nawo ayakhuphuka. Okwesine, isizini ephezulu yokuhweba kwamazwe ngamazwe kwendabuko ingaphambi kweminyaka edlule. Ngokuvamile uJuni minyaka yonke ungena esizini yokuthengisa yasehlobo yaphesheya kwezilwandle, futhi amazinga empahla azokhuphuka ngokufanele. Amanani okuthutha impahla alo nyaka akhuphuke inyanga eyodwa ngaphambi kweminyaka edlule, okusho ukuthi isizini yokuthengisa ephezulu yalo nyaka ifike kusenesikhathi.

I-Zheshang Securities ikhiphe umbiko wocwaningo ngoMeyi 11 onesihloko esithi “Ungawubheka kanjani ukwanda kwamuva okuphambene namanani okuthunyelwa kwezitsha?” Yathi ingxabano ende eLwandle Olubomvu iholele ekungezwani kweketanga lokuhlinzeka. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuphambuka kwemikhumbi kuholele ekwandeni kwamabanga okuthunyelwa. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukwehla kokusebenza kahle kokuhamba kwemikhumbi kuholele ekushintsheni okuqinile kwezitsha ezikhumulweni, okwenza kube nzima nakakhulu ukungezwani kweketanga lokuhlinzeka. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umkhawulo ohlangothini lwesidingo uyathuthuka, idatha yezomnotho eYurophu nase-United States iyathuthuka kancane, futhi kanye nokulindela ukwanda kwamanani okuthutha ngesikhathi sesizini esiphezulu, abanikazi bezimpahla baqoqa kusengaphambili. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umugqa wase-US ungene esikhathini esibucayi sokusayina izivumelwano zesikhathi eside, futhi izinkampani zokuthumela zinesifiso sokukhulisa amanani.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umbiko wocwaningo ukholelwa ukuthi iphethini yokugxila okuphezulu kanye nobudlelwano bezimboni embonini yokuthumela amakhonteyina kwenze amandla okukhuthaza ukukhulisa amanani. I-Zheshang Securities ithe izinkampani zemikhumbi yamakhonteyina ezihweba kwamanye amazwe zinezinga eliphezulu lokugxila. Kusukela ngomhlaka-10 Meyi 2024, izinkampani eziyishumi eziphezulu zemikhumbi yamakhonteyina zazibalelwa ku-84.2% wamandla okuthutha. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuye kwakhiwa ubudlelwano bezimboni kanye nokubambisana phakathi kwezinkampani. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ku-Emongweni wendawo yokuhlinzeka nokufunwa ewohlokayo, kuyasiza ukunciphisa ukuncintisana kwamanani okubi ngokumisa ukuhamba ngomkhumbi nokulawula amandla okuthutha. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kumongo wobudlelwano bokunikezela nokufunwa obuthuthukayo, kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele amazinga aphezulu okuthutha ngokukhuphuka kwamanani ahlangene.

Kusukela ngoNovemba 2023, amabutho ase-Yemen aseHouthi ahlasele imikhumbi ephindelela oLwandle Olubomvu nasemanzini aseduze. Izinkampani eziningi ezinkulu zemikhumbi emhlabeni wonke azizange zibe nakukhetha ngaphandle kokumisa ukuhamba kwemikhumbi yazo equkethe ama-container oLwandle Olubomvu nasemanzini aseduze kwalo bese zishintsha imizila yazo ezungeze iCape of Good Hope e-Afrika. Kulo nyaka, isimo oLwandle Olubomvu sisaqhubeka nokuba sibi, futhi imithambo yemikhumbi ivaliwe, ikakhulukazi uchungechunge lokunikezwa kwempahla e-Asia-Europe, oluthinteke kakhulu.

Ngokuphathelene nomkhuba wesikhathi esizayo wemakethe yokuthunyelwa kwamakhonteyina, i-Dexun Logistics ithe ngenxa yesimo samanje, amanani empahla azohlala eqinile esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, futhi izinkampani zokuthumela impahla sezivele zihlela umjikelezo omusha wokwenyuka kwamanani empahla.

"Amanani okuthutha ama-container azoqhubeka nokukhuphuka esikhathini esizayo. Okokuqala, isizini evamile yokuthengisa yaphesheya kwezilwandle isaqhubeka, kanti ama-Olympics azobanjwa eYurophu ngoJulayi kulo nyaka, okungase kunyuse amazinga okuthutha; okwesibili, ukususwa kwezimpahla eYurophu nase-United States sekuphelile, kanti ukuthengiswa kwasekhaya e-United States kuqhubeka nokuphakamisa amathemba ayo okuthuthukiswa kwemboni yokuthengisa yezwe. Ngenxa yokwanda kwesidingo kanye nomthamo wokuthunyelwa oqinile, amazinga okuthutha kulindeleke ukuthi aqhubeke nokukhuphuka esikhathini esifushane," kusho umthombo we-Yunqunar oshiwo ngenhla.