Kule sizini yendabuko engasebenzi yokuthutha, izindawo zokuthumela eziqinile, amanani akhuphukayo wezimpahla, kanye nesizini eqinile yokungangeni kube amagama abalulekile emakethe. Idatha ekhishwe yi-Shanghai Shipping Exchange ikhombisa ukuthi kusukela ekupheleni kukaMashi 2024 kuze kube manje, izinga lezimpahla ezisuka e-Shanghai Port kuya emakethe eyisisekelo echwebeni eNingizimu Melika linyuke ngo-95.88%, kanti izinga lempahla elisuka e-Shanghai Port liya emakethe yetheku eyisisekelo eYurophu linyuke ngo-43.88%.
Abangaphakathi embonini bahlaziya ukuthi izici ezifana nokuthuthuka kwesidingo semakethe eYurophu nase-United States kanye nezingxabano ezidonsa isikhathi eside oLwandle Olubomvu yizona zizathu eziyinhloko zokwenyuka kwamanani ezimpahla ezithunyelwayo. Ngokufika kwesizini yomkhumbi esezingeni eliphakeme, izintengo zokuthunyelwa kweziqukathi zingase ziqhubeke zikhuphuka ngokuzayo.
Izindleko zokuthumela zase-Europe zikhuphuke ngaphezu kwama-20% ngesonto
Kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-Ephreli 2024, i-Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index ekhishwe yi-Shanghai Shipping Exchange iqhubekile nokukhuphuka. Idatha ekhishwe ngoMeyi 10 ibonise ukuthi inkomba yezinga lezimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle eShanghai yayingamaphuzu angama-2305,79, okuwukunyuka ngo-18.8% kusukela ngesonto eledlule, okuwukunyuka ngo-33.21% kusuka kumaphuzu ayi-1730.98 ngoMashi 29, kanye nokwanda kwama-33.21% kusuka ku-1730. ukuqubuka kwenhlekelele yoLwandle Olubomvu. Inyuke ngo-132.16%.
Phakathi kwazo, imizila eya eNingizimu Melika naseYurophu yathola ukwanda okuphezulu kakhulu. Izinga lempahla (imali eyengeziwe olwandle nempahla yasolwandle) ethunyelwa ngaphandle isuka echwebeni lase-Shanghai iya emakethe yetheku eyisisekelo yaseNingizimu Melika ingu-US$5,461/TEU (isitsha esinobude obungamamitha angu-20, esibuye saziwe ngokuthi i-TEU), inyuke ngo-18.1% kusukela esikhathini esedlule kanye nokwenyuka ngo-95.88% kusukela ekupheleni kukaMashi. Izinga lempahla (imali eyengeziwe yokuthunyelwa nokuthunyelwa kwempahla) ethunyelwa isuka Echwebeni lase-Shanghai iya emakethe yetheku eyisisekelo yase-Europe ingu-US$2,869/TEU, inyuke ngo-24.7% kusukela ngesonto eledlule, inyuke ngo-43.88% kusukela ekupheleni kukaMashi, kanye nokwenyuka ngo-305.8% kusukela ngoNovemba 2023.
Umuntu ophethe ibhizinisi lokuthumela lenkampani ehlinzeka ngemisebenzi yedijithali emhlabeni wonke, i-Yunqunar Logistics Technology Group (kamuva ebizwa ngokuthi “Yunqunar”) uthe engxoxweni abe nayo nezintatheli ukuthi kusukela ngasekupheleni kuka-Ephreli walo nyaka, kungase kuzwakale sengathi ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla eziya eLatin America, Europe, North America, kanye nezimpahla zokuthutha emizileni yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi, eNdiya nasePakistan zinyuke kakhulu ngoMeyi.
Idatha ekhishwe u-Drewry, isikhungo sokucwaninga ngemikhumbi kanye ne-consulting, ngoMeyi 10 iphinde yabonisa ukuthi i-Drewry World Container Index (WCI) ikhuphuke yafinyelela ku-$3,159/FEU (isitsha esinobude obungamamitha angu-40) kuleli sonto (kusukela ngoMeyi 9), okuhambisana no-2022 Inyuke ngo-81% uma iqhathaniswa nesilinganiso esifanayo sonyaka odlule kanye nesilinganiso esifanayo ngonyaka odlule. US$1,420/FEU ngaphambi kwalolu bhubhane ngo-2019.
Muva nje, izinkampani eziningi zemikhumbi, okuhlanganisa iMedithera Shipping Company (MSC), iMaersk, CMA CGM, kanye neHapag-Lloyd, zimemezele ukwenyuka kwamanani. Thatha i-CMA CGM njengesibonelo. Ekupheleni kuka-April, i-CMA CGM yamemezela ukuthi kusukela ngomhlaka-15 Meyi, izolungisa amazinga amasha e-FAK (Freight All Kinds) omzila we-Asia-Northern Europe uye kuma-US$2,700/TEU kanye nama-US$5,000/FEU. Ngaphambilini, banyuke ngo-US$500/TEU kanye ne-US$1,000/FEU; ngoMeyi 10, i-CMA CGM yamemezela ukuthi kusukela ngomhlaka-1 Juni, izokwenyusa izinga le-FAK lempahla ethunyelwa isuka e-Asia iye emachwebeni aseNordic. Izinga elisha liphezulu njenge-US$6,000/FEU. Nakulokhu Kunyuswe ngo-$1,000/FEU.
U-Ke Wensheng, oyi-CEO yesikhondlakhondla senkampani yemikhumbi i-Maersk, uthe engqungqutheleni yakamuva ethi umthamo wezimpahla emizileni yase-Maersk yase-Europe unyuke ngo-9%, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yesidingo esinamandla sabathekelisi baseYurophu sokuphinda bagcwalise uhlu lwezimpahla. Kodwa-ke, inkinga yendawo evalekile nayo isivele, futhi abathumeli abaningi kufanele bakhokhe amanani aphezulu wempahla ukuze bagweme ukubambezeleka kwempahla.
Ngenkathi izintengo zokuthumela zikhuphuka, izintengo zesitimela sezimpahla zaseChina-Europe nazo ziyenyuka. Umthumeli wezimpahla ophethe izitimela zezimpahla zaseChina-Europe utshele izintatheli ukuthi isidingo samanje sempahla yezitimela zezimpahla zaseChina-Europe senyuke kakhulu, futhi izinga lempahla kweminye imizila linyuke ngama-US$200-300, futhi kungenzeka liqhubeke nokukhuphuka esikhathini esizayo. “Intengo yokuthutha olwandle inyukile, futhi indawo yokugcina impahla kanye nesikhathi akukwazi ukuhlangabezana nesidingo samakhasimende, okubangela ukuba ezinye izimpahla zidluliselwe ezithuthweni zikaloliwe. Nokho, umthamo wezokuthutha ngojantshi ulinganiselwe, futhi isidingo sendawo yokuthumela senyuke kakhulu esikhathini esifushane, okuzothinta nakanjani amanani okuthutha.”
Izimbuyiselo zenkinga yokushoda kweziqukathi
“Noma ngabe ezokuthutha noma ezikaloliwe ayashoda ama-container, kwezinye izindawo akukwazi uku-oda amabhokisi, izindleko zokuqasha amakhonteyna emakethe zinkulu kunokwenyuka kwezinga lempahla.” Umuntu osembonini yamakhonteyina eGuangdong utshele izintatheli.
Isibonelo, wathi izindleko zokusebenzisa i-40HQ (i-container engamamitha angu-40-ukuphakama) emzileni we-China-Europe yayingu-US$500-600 ngonyaka odlule, ekhuphuke yafinyelela ku-$1,000-1,200 ngoJanuwari kulo nyaka. Manje isikhuphukele ngaphezu kwe-US$1,500, futhi yedlula US$2,000 kwezinye izindawo.
Umthumeli wezimpahla echwebeni laseShanghai uphinde watshela izintatheli ukuthi amanye amagceke aphesheya kwezilwandle asegcwele ama-container, kushoda kakhulu ama-container eChina. Intengo yamabhokisi angenalutho e-Shanghai nase-Duisburg, eJalimane, inyukile isuka ku-$1,450 ngoMashi yaya ku-$1,900 yamanje.
Umuntu ophethe ibhizinisi lemikhumbi elishiwo ngenhla laseYunqunar uthe isizathu esibalulekile sokwanda kwezindleko zokuqasha amabhokisi ukuthi ngenxa yokungqubuzana oLwandle Olubomvu, inani elikhulu labanikazi bemikhumbi baphambukela eCape of Good Hope, okubangele ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwamabhokisi kube okungenani amaviki angama-2-3 kunesikhathi esijwayelekile, okuholele ekutheni kube neziqukathi ezingenalutho. Uketshezi luhamba kancane.
Izitayela zemakethe yemikhumbi yomhlaba wonke (ekuqaleni kuya maphakathi noMeyi) ezikhishwe yi-Dexun Logistics ngoMeyi 9 ziveze ukuthi ngemuva kweholidi loSuku lukaMeyi, isimo sisonke sokuhlinzekwa kwamabhokisi asikathuthuki kakhulu. Kunamazinga ahlukene okushoda kwamabhokisi, ikakhulukazi amabhokisi amakhulu namade, futhi ezinye izinkampani zemikhumbi ziyaqhubeka nokuqinisa ukulawula ukusetshenziswa kwamabhokisi emizileni yaseLatin America. Iziqukathi ezintsha ezenziwe e-China zibhukhwe ngaphambi kokuphela kukaJuni.
Ngo-2021, ehlaselwe ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19, imakethe yezohwebo yangaphandle “yehla yaqala yanyuka”, kanti uchungechunge lwezokuthutha lwamazwe ngamazwe lwabhekana nochungechunge lwezimo ezimbi kakhulu ebezingalindelekile. Ukubuya kweziqukathi ezisabalele emhlabeni wonke akusheleli, futhi ukusatshalaliswa kweziqukathi emhlabeni wonke akulingani. Inani elikhulu lamabhokisi angenalutho asalele emuva e-United States, e-Europe, e-Australia nakwezinye izindawo, futhi izwe lami liyashoda ngeziqukathi zokuthumela ngaphandle. Ngakho-ke, izinkampani zezitsha zigcwele ama-oda futhi zinamandla okukhiqiza aphelele. Kwaze kwaba sekupheleni kuka-2021 lapho ukushoda kwamabhokisi kwehla kancane kancane.
Ngokuthuthuka kokuhlinzekwa kwamabhokisi kanye nokutholwa kokusebenza kahle emakethe yemikhumbi yomhlaba wonke, kube nokusalela emuva ngokweqile kwamakhonteyna angenalutho emakethe yasekhaya kusukela ngo-2022 kuya ku-2023, kwaze kwaba nokushoda kwamabhokisi futhi kulo nyaka.
Izintengo zempahla zingase ziqhubeke nokukhuphuka
Ngokuphathelene nezizathu zokukhuphuka okubukhali kwakamuva kwamanani ezimpahla, umuntu ophethe ibhizinisi lokuthumela elishiwo ngenhla le-YQN uhlaziye izintatheli ukuthi okokuqala, i-United States isiqede ngokuyisisekelo isiteji sokukhipha impahla futhi yangena esigabeni sokubuyisela kabusha. Izinga lomthamo wezokuthutha lomzila owela i-Pacific liye lasimama kancane kancane, okukhuphule izinga lokukhuphuka kwempahla. Okwesibili, ukuze kugwenywe ukulungiswa okungaba khona kwentela okwenziwa yi-United States, izinkampani eziya emakethe yase-US zisebenzise imakethe yaseLatin America, okuhlanganisa imboni yokukhiqiza izimoto, imboni yengqalasizinda, njll., futhi zidlulisele imigqa yazo yokukhiqiza e-Latin America, okubangele ukuqhuma okukhulu kwesidingo semizila yaseLatin America. Izinkampani eziningi zemikhumbi Imizila eya eMexico yengeziwe ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nesidingo esandayo. Okwesithathu, isimo oLwandle Olubomvu siye sabangela ukushoda kwezinsiza emizileni yaseYurophu. Kusukela ezikhaleni zokuthutha kuya ezitsheni ezingenalutho, amanani ezimpahla aseYurophu nawo ayakhuphuka. Okwesine, inkathi ephezulu yohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe olungokwesiko lungaphambi kweminyaka edlule. Ngokuvamile uJuni unyaka ngamunye ungena enkathini yokuthengisa yasehlobo phesheya kwezilwandle, futhi amanani ezimpahla azokhuphuka ngokufanele. Amanani ezimpahla kulo nyaka anyuke ngenyanga eyodwa ngaphambi kwaseminyakeni edlule, okusho ukuthi inkathi yokuthengisa ephezulu yalo nyaka ifike ngaphambi kwesikhathi.
I-Zheshang Securities ikhiphe umbiko wocwaningo ngoMeyi 11 onesihloko esithi "Ungakubuka kanjani ukwanda kwakamuva okuphambene nezintengo zokuthunyelwa kwamabhokisi?" Iveze ukuthi ukungqubuzana okuthathe isikhathi eside oLwandle Olubomvu kuholele ekutheni kube nokungezwani kwempahla. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuchezuka kwemikhumbi kuye kwaholela ekwandeni kwamabanga okuthutha. , Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukwehla kokusebenza kahle kokusebenza komkhumbi kuholele ekushintsheni kweziqukathi eziqinile emachwebeni, okuqhubekisela phambili ukungezwani kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umkhawulo wohlangothi lwesidingo uyathuthuka, idatha yomnotho omkhulu eYurophu nase-United States ithuthuka kancane, futhi kuhambisana nokulindela ukukhuphuka kwamanani ezimpahla ngesizini ephezulu, abanikazi bezimpahla baqoqa kusenesikhathi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ulayini wase-US ungene esikhathini esibucayi sokusayina izivumelwano zesikhathi eside, futhi izinkampani zemikhumbi zinogqozi lokunyusa amanani.
Ngaso leso sikhathi, umbiko wocwaningo ukholelwa ukuthi iphethini ephezulu yokugxilisa ingqondo kanye nokusebenzisana kwezimboni embonini yokuthutha amabhokisi kuye kwakha amandla okuthuthukisa amanani. I-Zheshang Securities ithe izinkampani zamakhonteyina angaphandle zinezinga eliphezulu lokugxila. Kusukela ngoMeyi 10, 2024, izinkampani eziyishumi eziphezulu zamalayini eziqukathi zabalelwa ku-84.2% womthamo wezokuthutha. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ubudlelwano bemboni kanye nokubambisana kuye kwakhiwe phakathi kwezinkampani. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, Esimeni sokuwohloka kwesimo sokuphakelwa kanye nesidingo, kuyasiza ukunciphisa ukuncintisana kwamanani anonya ngokumisa ukuhamba ngomkhumbi nokulawula umthamo wezokuthutha. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, esimweni sobudlelwano obuthuthukisiwe bokuhlinzeka nokufunwa, kulindeleke ukuthi kuzuzwe amazinga aphezulu omthwalo wempahla ngokunyuka kwamanani okuhlanganyelwe.
Kusukela ngoNovemba 2023, amabutho ahlomile aseYemen aseHouthi ahlasele kaningi imikhumbi oLwandle Olubomvu kanye namanzi aseduze. Iziqhwaga eziningi zemikhumbi emhlabeni wonke azikwazanga ukwenza ngaphandle kokumisa ukuhamba kwemikhumbi yazo yamabhokisi oLwandle Olubomvu namanzi aseduze kwalo futhi zishintshe imizila yazo ezungeze iCape of Good Hope e-Afrika. Kulo nyaka, isimo oLwandle Olubomvu sisakhula, futhi imithambo yemikhumbi ivinjiwe, ikakhulukazi i-Asia-Europe supply chain, ethinteke kakhulu.
Mayelana nokuthambekela kwemakethe yokuthunyelwa kwamakhonteyina esikhathini esizayo, i-Dexun Logistics ithe ngenxa yesimo samanje, amanani ezimpahla azohlala eqinile esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, futhi izinkampani zemikhumbi sezihlela umzuliswano omusha wokwenyuka kwezinga lempahla.
"Izinga lokuthuthwa kwempahla lizoqhubeka nokukhuphuka esikhathini esizayo. Okokuqala, inkathi yokudayiswa kwendabuko phesheya kwezilwandle isaqhubeka, futhi ama-Olympics azoqhutshwa e-Europe ngoJulayi kulo nyaka, angase akhuphule izinga lempahla; okwesibili, ukuchithwa kwempahla e-Europe nase-United States sekuphelile, futhi ukuthengiswa kwasekhaya e-United States Kuphinde kukhulisa lokho okulindelwe ekuthuthukisweni kwemboni yezwe, isidingo sokuthutha imikhumbi yezwe. kulindeleke ukuthi ziqhubeke nokukhuphuka esikhathini esifushane,” kusho umthombo oshiwo ngenhla weYunqunar.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: May-17-2024
